Still, I stand by what I wrote, for a couple of reasons. I think it’s unfair to say I’ve stereotyped South Africa. Not only did I source the statements I made, I took them from South African authorities. The figures on the price increases came from a South African economist, being quoted in a South African newspaper. I didn’t come up with the claim that the increase in child abandonment had something to do with rising food prices, South African social workers in Johannesburg said that in a Sky News report. I’m not guessing that half of all South Africans live in poverty – I took that figure from a report by the South African Regional Poverty Network – the most current figure they provide actually says 57% (http://www.sarpn.org.za/documents/d0000990/).

As for Freeman, I’ve quoted him as a gardener and a ground-level reaction to the concerns about prices that have been expressed. I’d agree with you that the specific figures he gives for price inflation aren’t scientific – he’s not an economist, and I didn’t use his numbers for that reason.

I haven’t said that food prices would “quintuple” that there would be a “borderline famine”, or even that there would be a “severe food shortage”. What I DID say was that economists (not me) had predicted a “small increase in the price of food”, and that this predicted increase was “part of a global shift, of which World Cup-related demand is just an exacerbating factor.” I don’t know if I’d say that’s illogical.

Leigh’s also right – I don’t draw any conclusions, this is more of an investigative piece that asks a question and looks at the evidence for it and the possible effects, rather than an argumentative piece. I’m certainly not saying this is a new problem, or that it’s unique to South Africa – it’s pretty well established that when countries host these kind of events, as often as not, the businesses that don’t participate directly as suppliers or catering to tourists actually lose more on it than they gain (it happened pretty notably at the Athens Olympics).

I’ll stop there. I like the blog, Richard – adding it to my reader.

I was torn at the time – and still am – as to whether it should bug me that he would so completely misunderstand my country’s history, or whether I should be impressed with his energy, his demonstrated level of (misdirected) concern. I have never really worked out a final position about how I felt about that exchange, and the FIFA piece brought the same feelings about.

That there will be an economic impact of some sort certainly seems inevitable. I would be the first to question whether there is wisdom to spending so many hundreds of millions on new soccer stadia when we struggle to provide basic services to the majority of South Africans. Many in government argue that the tourist influx will create much-needed employment, but whether it will is by no means a certainty.

These are big debates, well-argued for and which should be of concern. The Matador piece, I felt, sidestepped these obvious concerns for something far less likely (inflation wiping out food security). That it was phrased as a question rather than an outright assertion merely allows the author to sidestep taking responsibility for having to make a case for this outcome. Which seems, based on his sources, impossible.

It’s not really infuriating, so much as humorous and occasionally annoying though. I could not tell you what life is like in Idaho, so am guilty of the same ignorance towards many other places, whether I choose to write about them or not.

The elephant story illustrates the point so aptly. Though the fact that you were caught out in the end at least indicates that we can no longer get away with the most exaggerated tales :)

Countries that host the Olympics rarely leave the occasion with a profit. This certainly was the case in my home — ok, high school only — town of Atlanta.

And what about the egregious manner in which people impacted climate at the WORLD CLIMATE SUMMIT?

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/12/jon-stewart-copenhagen-limos-climate-deniers-video.php?campaign=th_rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+treehuggersite+%28Treehugger%29

Is it so far fetched to believe South Africa will be similarly impacted. Keeping in mind also, Copenhagen and Atlanta, GA don’t already have the same issues with poverty and lack of resource that South Africa has.

All that said, your line about South Africa in the 80s wasn’t South Africa in the 80s? So absolutely true. I was born in Johanessburg, moved to the US when I was 5. I told my teachers we rode elephants to school and I had a giraffe as a pet. They easily believed me, then gave me a time out when they realized I as lying.

Nice blog, Richard. I’ve subscribed.

I for one, Richard will take you up on your wager of a beer. The arguments in that piece are compelling, well structured and evidently thoroughly thought through!

This goes further though because the global trend in rising food prices will make food unaffordable to everyone except possibly Warren Buffett and assorted others from the billionaires list. I very much doubt you will be able to afford that massively expensive beer to keep up your end of the wager, and if you do, it will probably be the last (albeit fluid) meal i will ever have, because food will be out of my price range.

And don’t you dare come with your thinking and stuff and rubbish my clear, insightful and fascinating arguments.